The Magic of Flexibility

The Angle Issue #239

The magic of flexibility
David Peterson

We’re thrilled to finally announce our investment in Beebop, a Belgium-based AI-powered forecasting and orchestration platform that enables utilities, energy suppliers and OEMs to harness the value of “behind-the-meter” residential flexibility. This is an interesting one, so I wanted to share a bit more about our thesis, and the story behind the investment.

The idea of providing flexibility back to the grid by turning off demand, or tapping pools of capacity, is not new. Since the 2000s, utilities have been signing deals with industrial facilities, paying them in advance if they agreed to turn off at times of peak energy usage. In the early 2010s, countless “demand response” startups popped up, claiming they could help the grid balance by asking consumers to turn off their ACs for the greater good. (As you might imagine, that doesn’t work too well on hot days. Most of these residential “virtual power plants” were unreliable pools of capacity, which made them difficult to monetize.)

But a few things have changed since then.

  • First, renewable energy is responsible for an increasing share of our energy supply. Because renewable energy is inherently variable (the sun isn’t always shining, the wind isn’t always blowing), flexibility is becoming an even more critical tool to balance the grid.

  • Second, “behind-the-meter” consumer devices, such as EVs/chargers, home battery systems, and heat pumps, are coming online at unprecedented scale. And in aggregate, the demand drawn by these devices is as significant as the demand drawn by industrial and commercial facilities.

  • Third, these devices are now connected to the internet. Ten years ago, the sort of control required by Beebop was only attainable by installing sensors and controllers locally. Not so anymore. Now Beebop can do everything they need to do (from a control and orchestration perspective) with an API call.

  • Fourth, advances in artificial intelligence finally make the modeling of millions of devices technically possible. I won’t share too much about Beebop’s technology here, but suffice it to say that they’ve made some breakthroughs which enable the orchestration of “behind-the-meter” devices at a scale, and with a level of fine-tuned control, that is – to quote a prospective customer in the United States – “literally magic.”

  • Fifth, energy demand, due to increasing electrification and surging AI data center usage, is, for the first time in years, on the rise!

For all these reasons, we think that the time is right for exactly this sort of technology. But, ultimately, this one is all about the team. Jan-Willem, Bert, and Sandra have been working in this space for the past decade and a half. Jan-Willem and Sandra both started, and sold, virtual power plant businesses. Bert is an energy system expert with deep experience across industry and academia. Having learned lots of lessons from their past experiences, they have a unique view on the space, and how to wedge into the market to capture significant value. Not only that, they’ve bootstrapped this business for the past year, and as a result, they already have a product, a top-notch team of PhDs and energy experts, and customers.

As an aside, this is an interesting example of a company that is being built to be globally scalable and significant from day one, but also could only have been started in Europe. Belgium, the Netherlands, and a few other European countries, have generated a disproportionate share of their energy from renewables for years. This forced them to figure out flexibility long ago. As a result, they are essentially living with grids of the future, today. (There’s a reason PG&E sent their best and brightest over to Belgium a decade ago to learn some best practices.) The US is just now starting to catch up (e.g. see FERC Order 2222 and Jigar Shah’s leadership on DERs) and Beebop is ready to show them the way.

I couldn’t be more excited to work with Jan-Willem, Sandra, Bert and team. And I’m forever thankful that Jan-Willem finally responded to my seventh (or maybe it was my eighth?) professionally persistent email. This will be an exciting one to watch.

David

FROM THE BLOG

The Venture Apocalypse
The venture world is deeply debating its future, but core principles remain unchanged.

No Sleepwalk to Success
Engineering success in a technical startup.

Revenue Durability in the LLM World
Everything about LLMs seems to make revenue durability more challenging than ever.

WORTH READING

ENTERPRISE/TECH NEWS

Assuming the breakup of Google. The WSJ reports that investors are already beginning to price in the possible breakup of Google due to pending federal court cases. “The federal government is a long way from actually breaking Google up. Investors are starting to treat the possibility as a foregone conclusion. The trial for the Justice Department’s second antitrust case against the internet titan started Monday. That comes a month after Google lost the first case, with a federal judge ruling that the company engaged in illegal practices to maintain its dominance in internet search. The current trial challenges Google’s position in the ad-tech industry, where the company’s tools play a major role in the buying and selling of online advertising. The first case could result in an order to separate the search business from the company’s Android and Chrome platforms. In the second case, the government is seeking an order that would force Google to divest itself of its ad-tech services.”

Models and money. With OpenAI launching the Strawberry o1 model and announcing a $6.5B fundraising at a $150B valuation, Michael Parekh breaks it down. “But the bottom line is that OpenAI is preparing itself for a very busy 2025 and beyond. Both operationally leading on a number if core new AI products and services, AND securing the first in what it likely to be a series of funding efforts to execute on those opportunities. Big execution hills to climb, one after another. As I’ve outlined before, every major AI company is focused on expending tens of billions in AI capex to fund the ‘Table Stakes’ Scaling of AI to what it eventually possible. And the financial rewards may not be in sync with those expenditures. As the leading private company in this AI Tech Wave, partnered closely with Microsoft, OpenAI has to execute on its parallel building and funding opportunities, with all the challenges they entail. As all their peers also execute on the same opportunities around them. That is the ‘Bigger Picture’ to keep in mind as we finish 2024. Stay tuned.”

Do AI companies work? Benn Stancil believes that, while the world will continue to fund and build huge expensive foundational AI models, these models may not offer any sustainable moats. He argues that cloud infrastructure is not a good analysis for foundational models, an insight that might also apply to some AI application companies as well. “There is, however, one enormous difference that I didn’t think about: You can’t build a cloud vendor overnight. Azure doesn’t have to worry about a few executives leaving and building a worldwide network of data centers in 18 months. AWS is an internet business, but it dug its competitive moat in the physical world. The same is true for a company like Coca-Cola: The secret recipe is important, but not that important, because a Y Combinator startup couldn’t build factories and distribution centers and relationships with millions of retailers over the course of a three month sprint. But an AI vendor could? Though OpenAI’s work requires a lot of physical computing resources, they’re leased (from Microsoft, or AWS, or GCP), not built. Given enough money, anyone could have access to the same resources. It’s not hard to imagine a small team of senior researchers leaving OpenAI, raising a ton of money to rent some computers, and being a legitimate disruptive threat to OpenAI’s core business in a matter of months. In other words, the billions that AWS spent on building data centers is a lasting defense. The billions that OpenAI spent on building prior versions of GPT is not, because better versions of it are already available for free on Github.”

Job cuts at Samsung. Samsung announced that it would trim 30% of its workforce outside Korea, joining Intel (which announced similar cuts recently), and other global tech giants. “Samsung has faced several challenges in its key areas of business in recent quarters. According to IDC, Samsung is the largest smartphone manufacturer in the world. However, like its competitor Apple, Samsung is struggling with growth due to the success of Chinese manufacturers.”

HOW TO STARTUP

Advice for PMs (or founders) on working with engineers. Lenny Rachitsky interviews Camille Fournier of Rent-the-Runway who offers some very good advice on how to best work effectively with engineers. One way to avoid annoying engineers is “to publicly recognize and credit engineers for their contributions to product successes. Go beyond just thanking them; let them take the lead in presenting their work and achievements. This fosters a culture of appreciation and motivation within the team.”

Who’s the CEO? Israeli unicorn Openweb is facing a rare public drama following the board’s appointment of a new CEO. The previous CEO appears to be publicly disputing the decision. Techcrunch has more.

HOW TO VENTURE

DPI Timing. Beezer Clarkson of Sapphire Ventures waded into the debate on the timing of capital distributions (DPI). “[Others have] noted that there’s 0 causation (or it’s too hard to tell) between 5-year DPI and ultimate performance. We agree in general and yet in 2 of our high-performing funds – one 11x and one 8x – both had DPI, 0.39x and 0.27x DPI respectively, in year 5. As a counterpoint, we also see multiple 3x DPI funds that had zero or close to zero DPI by year 5, indicating to us that early liquidity can be a promising signal, but it’s not a necessity for long-term success.”

Startup mortality rates. Fred Wilson of Union Square shares data and perspective on startup mortality rates. According to Wilson, “1/3 are good investments; 1/3 turn into something but you wish you hadn't made the investment; 1/3 are zeros.”

PORTFOLIO NEWS

Beebop raised $5.5M to integrate residential devices into the power systems. The round was led by Angular Ventures, with support from Contrarian Ventures.

CruxOCM was selected by Delek Logistics Partners to co-commercialize CruxOCM's product, gatherBOT™, for gathering system control center operations automation.

PORTFOLIO JOBS

Reply

or to participate.